[Influence of Serum TGF-β1 and EGFR Levels on the Therapeutic Effect of High-Dose AraC in Patients with Acute Myeloid Leukemia Based on the Decision Curve].

Objective: To analyze the influence of serum levels of transforming growth factor-β1 (TGF-β1) and epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) on the therapeutic effect of high-dose cytarabine (HD-AraC) in patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML).

Methods: 98 patients with AML treated in our hospital from January 2019 to June 2020 were selected as the research subjects, all patients were treated with HD-AraC for 1 course of treatment every week. The effect of 2 groups were evaluated during after one course of treatment and divided into effective group and ineffective group, statistical table of baseline data was designed, the baseline data of 2 groups were counted in detail, the baseline data and serum levels of TGF-β1 and EGFR of 2 groups were compared, Logistic regression analysis was used to examine the relationship between the levels of serum TGF-β1, EGFR and the therapeutic effect of HD-AraC in patients with AML, the value of serum TGF-β1 and EGFR levels in predicting the therapeutic effect of HD-AraC in AML patients was analyzed based on ROC curve and decision curve.

Results: After 1 course of treatment, among the 98 patients, 26 cases had complete remission, 38 cases had partially remission and 34 cases no remission, the total effective rate was 65.31% (64/98); after comparing data of 2 groups, Logistic regression analysis showed that the overexpression of serum EGFR before treatment might be a risk factor for the ineffective treatment of HD-AraC in AML patients (OR>1, P<0.05), overexpression of serum TGF-β1 before treatment might be a protective factor for the ineffective treatment of HD-AraC in AML patients (OR<1, P<0.05); the ROC curve results showed that the AUC of serum EGFR and TGF-β1 before treatment in predicting the risk of ineffective HD-AraC treatment in AML patients were >0.70, which had certain predictive value. The decision curve results showed that in the threshold range of 0.15-044, the prediction model combined with serum EGFR and TGF-β1 levels in predicting the net benefit rate of HD-AraC treatment in AML patients was better than that of serum EGFR or serum TGF-β1 alone.

Conclusion: The levels of serum TGF-β1 and EGFR affect the therapeutic effect of HD-AraC in patients with AML and increase the risk of ineffective treatment, serum TGF-β1 and EGFR can be used to predict the risk of ineffective HD-AraC treatment in AML patients, and the combined prediction of net benefit rate is higher.