AI Article Synopsis
- Future research on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) onset and decay is limited, with this study analyzing projected changes in El Niño events in the 21st Century through a multi-model ensemble of climate models.
- It finds that El Niño events are expected to (1) develop more rapidly, (2) last longer in the eastern and far eastern Pacific, and (3) exhibit stronger remote impacts through teleconnections.
- These changes stem from shifts in the tropical Pacific's mean state, alterations in ENSO feedback processes, and increased stochastic westerly wind bursts, potentially leading to more significant global consequences of El Niño.
Article Abstract
Future changes in the seasonal evolution of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during its onset and decay phases have received little attention by the research community. This work investigates the projected changes in the spatio-temporal evolution of El Niño events in the 21 Century (21 C), using a multi-model ensemble of coupled general circulation models subjected to anthropogenic forcing. Here we show that El Niño is projected to (1) grow at a faster rate, (2) persist longer over the eastern and far eastern Pacific, and (3) have stronger and distinct remote impacts via teleconnections. These changes are attributable to significant changes in the tropical Pacific mean state, dominant ENSO feedback processes, and an increase in stochastic westerly wind burst forcing in the western equatorial Pacific, and may lead to more significant and persistent global impacts of El Niño in the future.
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| http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8993828 | PMC |
| http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29519-7 | DOI Listing |
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