A nomogram based on multi-modal ultrasound for prediction of microvascular invasion and recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma.

Objective: To establish and validate a nomogram based on multi-modal ultrasound for preoperative prediction of microvascular invasion (MVI) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and to assess the ability thereof to stratify recurrence-free survival (RFS).

Methods: A total of 287 HCC patients undergoing surgical resection were prospectively enrolled, including 210 patients in the training cohort and 77 patients in the test cohort. All patients underwent conventional ultrasound, contrast-enhanced ultrasonography, and shear wave elastography examinations within one week before surgery. Taking histopathological examination result as the reference standard, independent factors associated with MVI in HCC were determined by logistic regression and a nomogram was established and further evaluated. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to analyze the prognostic value of histologic MVI status and nomogram-predicted MVI status.

Results: Multivariate analysis showed that tumor diameter, echogenicity, tumor shape, arterial phase peritumoral enhancement and enhancement level in portal venous phase were independent predictors of MVI (all p < 0.05). The nomogram based on these variables showed good discrimination and calibration with the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.821 (0.762-0.870) and 0.789 (0.681-0.874) in the training and test cohorts. There was a significant difference in RFS between the nomogram-predicted MVI positive and the nomogram-predicted MVI negative groups in training and test cohorts (p < 0.001 and p = 0.004 respectively).

Conclusions: The multimodal ultrasound features were effective imaging markers for preoperative prediction of MVI of HCC and the nomogram might be an effective tool to stratify the risk of recurrence and guide the individualized treatment of HCC.