Was there an improvement in the years of life lost (YLLs) for non-communicable diseases in the Soma and Minamisoma cities of Fukushima after the 2011 disaster? A longitudinal study.

Objectives: This study aimed to determine cause-specific years of life lost (YLL) changes between predisaster and postdisaster in disaster-affected municipalities, compared with the national average. We estimated the YLL in Soma and Minamisoma cities (the subject area) in Fukushima, Japan, where the tsunami and the nuclear accident hit in 2011.

Participants: We used vital registration records from a national survey conducted between January 2006 and December 2015. We analysed 6369 death data in the predisaster period (2006-2010) and 6258 death data in the postdisaster period (2011-2015).

Methods: We incorporated vital statistics data as follows: age-based, sex-based and International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision-based cause-specific deaths and calculated YLLs by ages 0, 40, 65 and 75 and sex for attributable causes of death for heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, pneumonia, all cancers and specific cancers; breast cancer, colorectal cancer, leukaemia, lung cancer, stomach cancer and uterine cancer for predisaster and postdisaster in the subject area.

Results: YLL attributed to heart diseases for males showed no decrease and YLL postdisaster was 0.37 years larger than that of the national average at age 0. The difference was -0.17 (95% uncertainty interval: -0.40 to 0.05) years at age 65. It decreased for females; the difference was 0.37 (0.18-0.57) years after the disaster. YLL decrease (that is, difference) in cerebrovascular diseases at age 0 was 0.27 (0.09-0.44) years and 0.18 (0.04-0.32) years; however, the YLLs postdisaster were still 0.24 and 0.25 years larger than those for the national average for males and females, respectively. YLL attributed to cancer did not increase even after the nuclear disaster.

Conclusions: We specified the causes of death to be reduced in disaster-affected areas in the future. This study emphasised the importance of understanding how the health situation changed for the whole society of the area from a comprehensive perspective, rather than focusing only on small mortality increases.