Excess all-cause mortality and COVID-19 reported fatality in Iran (April 2013-September 2021): age and sex disaggregated time series analysis.

Objective: The actual impact of the pandemic on COVID-19 specific mortality is still unclear due to the variability in access to diagnostic tools. This study aimed to estimate the excess all-cause mortality in Iran until September 2021 based on the national death statistics.

Results: The autoregressive integrated moving average was used to predict seasonal all-cause death in Iran (R-squared = 0.45). We observed a 38.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) 29.7%-40.1%) rise in the all-cause mortality from 22 June 2020 to 21 June 2021. The excess all-cause mortality per 100,000 population were 178.86 (95% CI 137.2-220.5, M:F ratio = 1.3) with 49.1% of these excess deaths due to COVID-19. Comparison of spring 2019 and spring 2021 revealed that the highest percent increase in mortality was among men aged 65-69 years old (77%) and women aged 60-64 years old (86.8%). Moreover, the excess mortality among 31 provinces of Iran ranged from 109.7 (Hormozgan) to 273.2 (East-Azerbaijan) per 100,000 population. In conclusion, there was a significant rise in all-cause mortality during the pandemic. Since COVID-19 fatality explains about half of this rise, the increase in other causes of death and underestimation in reported data should be concerned by further studies.