An MRI-Based Radiomic Model for Individualized Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients With Hepatitis B Virus-Related Cirrhosis.

Objective: To develop and validate a radiomic nomogram for individualized prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in HBV cirrhosis patients based on baseline magnetic resonance imaging examinations and clinical data.

Methods: 364 patients with HBV cirrhosis from five hospitals were assigned to the training, internal validation, external validation-1 or external validation-2 cohort. All patients underwent baseline magnetic resonance image (MRI) scans and clinical follow-up within three-year time. Clinical risk factors and MRI-based features were extracted and analyzed. The radiomic signatures were built using the radiomics-score (Rad-score) that calculated for each patient as a linear weighted combination of selected MRI-based features. Prognostic performances of the clinical and radiomic nomograms were evaluated with Cox modeling in the training and validation cohorts.

Results: Eighteen features were selected for inclusion in the Rad-score prognostic model. The radiomic signature from multi-sequence MRI yielded a concordance index (C-index) of 0.710, 0.681, 0.632 and 0.658 in the training, internal validation, external validation-1, external validation-2 cohorts, respectively. Sex and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) class were the most prognostic clinical risk factors in univariate Cox proportional hazards analyses. The radiomic combined nomogram that integrated the radiomic signature with the clinical factors yielded a C-index of 0.746, 0.710, and 0.641 in the training, internal validation, and external validation-1 cohorts, respectively, which was an improvement over either the clinical nomogram or radiomic signature alone.

Conclusion: We developed an MRI-based radiomic combined nomogram with good discrimination ability for the individualized prediction of HCC in HBV cirrhosis patients within three-year time.