Probability maps classify ischemic stroke regions more accurately than CT perfusion summary maps.

Objectives: To compare single parameter thresholding with multivariable probabilistic classification of ischemic stroke regions in the analysis of computed tomography perfusion (CTP) parameter maps.

Methods: Patients were included from two multicenter trials and were divided into two groups based on their modified arterial occlusive lesion grade. CTP parameter maps were generated with three methods-a commercial method (ISP), block-circulant singular value decomposition (bSVD), and non-linear regression (NLR). Follow-up non-contrast CT defined the follow-up infarct region. Conventional thresholds for individual parameter maps were established with a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Probabilistic classification was carried out with a logistic regression model combining the available CTP parameters into a single probability.

Results: A total of 225 CTP data sets were included, divided into a group of 166 patients with successful recanalization and 59 with persistent occlusion. The precision and recall of the CTP parameters were lower individually than when combined into a probability. The median difference [interquartile range] in mL between the estimated and follow-up infarct volume was 29/23/23 [52/50/52] (ISP/bSVD/NLR) for conventional thresholding and was 4/6/11 [31/25/30] (ISP/bSVD/NLR) for the probabilistic classification.

Conclusions: Multivariable probability maps outperform thresholded CTP parameter maps in estimating the infarct lesion as observed on follow-up non-contrast CT. A multivariable probabilistic approach may harmonize the classification of ischemic stroke regions.

Key Points: • Combining CTP parameters with a logistic regression model increases the precision and recall in estimating ischemic stroke regions. • Volumes following from a probabilistic analysis predict follow-up infarct volumes better than volumes following from a threshold-based analysis. • A multivariable probabilistic approach may harmonize the classification of ischemic stroke regions.