A prognostic risk model based on DNA methylation levels of genes and lncRNAs in lung squamous cell carcinoma.

Background: Recurrence is a risk factor for the prognosis of lung squamous carcinoma (LUSC). DNA methylation levels of RNAs are also associated with LUSC prognosis. This study aimed to construct a prognostic model with high performance in predicting LUSC prognosis using the methylation levels of lncRNAs and genes.

Methods: The differentially expressed RNAs (DERs) and differentially methylated RNAs (DMRs) between the recurrent and non-recurrent LUSC tissues in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA; training dataset) were identified. Weighted correlation network analysis was performed to identify co-methylation networks. Differentially methylated genes and lncRNAs with opposite expression-methylation levels were used for the screening of prognosis-associated RNAs. The prognostic model was constructed and its performance was validated in the GSE39279 dataset.

Results: A total of 664 DERs and 981 DMRs (including 972 genes) in recurrent LUSC tissues were identified. Three co-methylation modules, including 226 differentially methylated genes, were significantly associated with LUSC. Among prognosis-associated RNAs, 18 DERs/DMRs with opposite methylation-expression levels were included in the methylation prognostic risk model. LUSC patients with high risk scores had a poor prognosis compared with patients who had low risk scores (TCGA: HR = 3.856, 95% CI [2.297-6.471]; GSE39279: HR = 3.040, 95% CI [1.435-6.437]). This model had a high accuracy in predicting the prognosis (AUC = 0.903 and 0.800, respectively), equivalent to the nomogram model inclusive of clinical variables.

Conclusions: Referring to the methylation levels of the 16-RNAs might help to predict the survival outcomes in LUSC.