Association of Economic Recession and Social Distancing With Pediatric Non-accidental Trauma During COVID-19.

Introduction: There has been concern that the incidence of non-accidental trauma (NAT) cases in children would rise during the COVID-19 pandemic due to the combination of social isolation and economic depression. Our goal was to evaluate NAT incidence and severity during the pandemic across multiple US cities.

Methods: Multi-institutional, retrospective cohort study comparing NAT rates in children <18 y old during the COVID-19 pandemic (March-August 2020) with a recent historical data (January 2015-February 2020) and during a previous economic recession (January 2007-December 2011) at level 1 Pediatric Trauma Centers. Comparisons were made in local and national macroeconomic indicators.

Results: Overall rates of NAT during March-August 2020 did not increase compared to historical data (P = 0.8). Severity of injuries did not increase during the pandemic as measured by Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) (P = 0.97) or mortality (P = 0.7), but Injury Severity Score (ISS) slightly decreased (P = 0.018). Racial differences between time periods were seen, with increased proportions of NAT occurring in African-Americans during the pandemic (P < 0.001). NAT rates over time had low correlation (r = 0.32) with historical averages, suggesting a difference from previous years. Older children (≥3 y) had increased NAT rates during the pandemic. Overall NAT rates had low inverse correlation with unemployment (r = -0.37) and moderate inverse correlation with the stock market (r = -0.6). Significant variation between sites was observed.

Conclusions: Overall NAT rates in children did not increase during the COVID-19 pandemic, but rates were highly variable by site and increases were seen in African-Americans and older children. Further studies are warranted to explore local influences on NAT rates.