Unlabelled: Medical students often have problems with Bayesian reasoning situations. Representing statistical information as natural frequencies (instead of probabilities) and visualizing them (e.g., with double-trees or net diagrams) leads to higher accuracy in solving these tasks. However, double-trees and net diagrams (which already contain the correct solution of the task, so that the solution could be read of the diagrams) have not yet been studied in medical education. This study examined the influence of information format (probabilities v. frequencies) and visualization (double-tree v. net diagram) on the accuracy and speed of Bayesian judgments. A total of 142 medical students at different university medical schools (Munich, Kiel, Goettingen, Erlangen, Nuremberg, Berlin, Regensburg) in Germany predicted posterior probabilities in 4 different medical Bayesian reasoning tasks, resulting in a 3-factorial 2 × 2 × 4 design. The diagnostic efficiency for the different versions was represented as the median time divided by the percentage of correct inferences. Frequency visualizations led to a significantly higher accuracy and faster judgments than did probability visualizations. Participants solved 80% of the tasks correctly in the frequency double-tree and the frequency net diagram. Visualizations with probabilities also led to relatively high performance rates: 73% in the probability double-tree and 70% in the probability net diagram. The median time for a correct inference was fastest with the frequency double tree (2:08 min) followed by the frequency net diagram and the probability double-tree (both 2:26 min) and probability net diagram (2:33 min). The type of visualization did not result in a significant difference. Frequency double-trees and frequency net diagrams help answer Bayesian tasks more accurately and also more quickly than the respective probability visualizations. Surprisingly, the effect of information format (probabilities v. frequencies) on performance was higher in previous studies: medical students seem also quite capable of identifying the correct solution to the Bayesian task, among other probabilities in the probability visualizations.
Highlights: Frequency double-trees and frequency nets help answer Bayesian tasks not only more accurately but also more quickly than the respective probability visualizations.In double-trees and net diagrams, the effect of the information format (probabilities v. natural frequencies) on performance is remarkably lower in this high-performing sample than that shown in previous studies.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/23814683221086623 | DOI Listing |
Int Urol Nephrol
January 2025
Medical College, Qinghai University, Xining, 810016, People's Republic of China.
Objective: Using machine learning to construct a prediction model for the risk of diabetes kidney disease (DKD) in the American diabetes population and evaluate its effect.
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J Fluoresc
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Department of Applied Physics, Delhi Technological University, New Delhi, 110 042, India.
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January 2025
Geophysics Department, Faculty of Science, Cairo University, Giza, 12613, Egypt.
The Red Sea remains a largely under-explored basin, with the Northern Egyptian Red Sea requiring further investigation due to limited borehole data, sparse case studies, and poor seismic quality. A petroleum system, regional structural cross-section, and geological block diagrams integrating onshore fieldwork from Gebel Duwi and offshore subsurface geology were utilized to assess the hydrocarbon potential of the Northern Egyptian Red Sea (NERS). The findings highlight that pre- and syn-rift organic-rich source units in the NERS could generate oil and gas, similar to the capped reservoirs of the Southern Gulf of Suez.
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Biostatistics and Medical Biometry, Medical School OWL, Bielefeld University, Bielefeld, Germany.
During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the effective reproduction number (R-eff) has frequently been used to describe the course of the pandemic. Analytical properties of R-eff are rarely studied. We analytically examine how and under which conditions the conventional susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model (without infection age) serves as an approximation to the infection-age-structured SIR model.
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Department of Special Education, University of Thessaly, 38221 Volos, Greece.
Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) has a significant impact on a person's social, emotional, and communication functioning. According to research, individualized instruction can significantly improve these deficits. One of the most successful methods of achieving this outcome is by gaming platforms that provide serious games (SGs).
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