Agricultural intensification leads to higher nitrate levels in Lake Ontario tributaries.

Eutrophication remains the most widespread water quality impairment globally and is commonly associated with excess nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) inputs to surface waters from agricultural runoff. In southern Ontario, Canada, increases in nitrate (NO-N) concentrations as well as declines in total phosphorus (TP) concentration have been observed over the past four decades at predominantly agricultural watersheds, where major expansions in row crop production at the expense of pasture and forage have occurred. This study used a space-for-time approach to test whether 'agricultural intensification', herein defined as increases in row crop area (primarily corn-soybean-winter wheat rotation) at the expense of mixed livestock and forage/pasture, could explain increases in NO-N and declines in TP over time. We found a clear, positive relationship between the extent of row crop area within watersheds and NO-N losses, such that tributary NO-N concentrations and export were predicted to increase by ~0.4 mg/L and ~130 kg/km respectively, for every 10% expansion in row crop area. There was also a significant positive relationship between row crop area and total dissolved phosphorus (TDP) concentration, but not export, and TP was not correlated with any form of landcover. Instead, TP was strongly associated with storm events, and was more sensitive to hydrologic condition than to landcover. These results suggest that pervasive shifts toward tile-drained corn and soybean production could explain increases in tributary NO-N levels in this region. The relationship between changes in agriculture and P is less clear, but the significant association between dissolved P and row crop area suggests that increased adoption of reduced tillage practices and tile drainage may enhance subsurface losses of P.