Purpose: Predicting the clinical course of COVID-19 pneumonia is of high clinical importance and may change treatment strategies. This study aimed to compare the semi-quantitative CT score (radiological score), mCHADS-VASc score (clinical score), and R-mCHADS-VASc score (clinical and radiological score) to predict the risk of ICU admission and mortality in COVID 19 pneumonia.

Methods: This study retrospectively evaluated 901 COVID-19 pneumonia cases with positive PCR results. The mCHADS-VASc score was calculated based on clinical risk factors. CT images were evaluated, and the semi-quantitative CT scores were obtained. A new scoring method (R-mCHADS-VASc score) was developed by combining these scores. The performance of the mCHADS-VASc score, semi-quantitative CT score, and a combination of these scores (R-mCHADS-VASc score) was evaluated using ROC analysis.

Results: The ROC curves of the semi-quantitative CT, mCHADS-VASc, and R-mCHADS-VASc scores were examined. The semi-quantitative CT, mCHADS-VASc, and R-mCHADS-VASc scores were significant in predicting intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mortality (p < 0.001). The R-mCHADS-VASc score performed best in predicting a severe clinical course, and the cut-off value of 8 for the R-mCHADS-VASc score had 83.9% sensitivity and 91.6% specificity for mortality.

Conclusions: The R-mCHADS-VASc score includes both clinical and radiological parameters. It is a feasible scoring method for predicting a severe clinical course at an early stage with high sensitivity and specificity values. However, prospective studies with larger sample sizes are warranted.

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http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8900877PMC
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrad.2022.110238DOI Listing

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