This study assesses climate change impact on rice productivity in 28 top rice-producing districts in Pakistan. Driscoll and Kraay estimation is applied on panel data from 1981 to 2019. The cross-sectional dependency test results reveals that climatic factors such as rainfall, humidity, and temperature have correlation issue in different selected regions. The study observes that temperature, rice productivity, and rainfall have inverted U-shape relationship. Rice productivity response is quadratic instead of linear towards average rainfall and temperature during the particular cultivation time, comprising of harvesting, flowering, and planting. The coefficient of temperature during planting time is positive and significant, while the square of temperature during planting time is negative and significant. Temperature during flowering and harvesting time is significant and positive, while the square of temperature during flowering and harvesting time is negative and significant. Rain fall during planting and flowering time are positive and significant; besides that, fertilizer usage stimulates and humidity hinders rice productivity in selected districts of Pakistan. Our empirical results considered the issues of spatial dependency, serial correlation, and heterogeneity.
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