Risk of foot and mouth disease spread through cattle movements in Uganda.

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in Uganda, where livestock movements through porous borders and beyond play a key role in the spread of transboundary animal diseases. Data from published and unpublished sources were used to conduct a qualitative risk assessment based on the World Organisation for Animal Health framework to assess the risk of foot and mouth disease virus spread in Uganda through pastoral and trade-related cattle movements from the country's southern border districts. A scenario tree was developed as a conceptual framework, and the risk was assessed by considering factors including the cattle population, proportion of vaccinated cattle, number of live cattle legally moved from districts along the Ugandan-Tanzanian border, the production system in the destination districts and the purpose of the movement. Factors associated with higher risk included live cattle movements for pastoral/grazing and breeding purposes, particularly those towards agro-pastoral (AP) areas, which have the potential to lead to outbreaks on several farms in the destination district and other districts countrywide. Prophylactic vaccination should therefore prioritise districts from which movements of large volumes of cattle to other areas originate and the AP destination districts. Specific awareness campaigns should be conducted in destination districts to improve preventative measures and farm biosecurity levels. This study will inform the revision of the risk-based strategic plan, aimed at reducing FMD impacts in Uganda, as the country progresses along the progressive control pathway for FMD.