Temporal Trends and Projection of Cancer Attributable to Human Papillomavirus Infection in China, 2007-2030.

Background: Information on temporal trends of cancer attributable to human papillomavirus (HPV) in China is limited.

Methods: Cancer incidence and mortality during 2007 to 2015 were extracted from the Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report and the national population from the National Bureau of Statistics. HPV-attributable cancer burden and the average annual percentage change during 2007 to 2015 were estimated and cancer burden during 2016 to 2030 was projected.

Results: HPV-attributable cancer cases have increased by 3.8% [95% confidence interval (CI), 2.9%-4.8%] annually from 85,125 to 113,558 and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) rose by 3.0% (95% CI, 2.5%-3.5%) from 4.67 to 5.83 per 100,000 persons during 2007 to 2015. Cervical, female anal, and vulva cancer cases have increased by 3.8% (95% CI, 2.8%-4.7%), 6.5% (95% CI, 1.2%-12.2%), and 3.7% (95% CI, 1.6%-5.8%) per year. Male anal and oropharyngeal cancer cases have elevated by 7.5% (95% CI, 2.8%-12.5%) and 4.4% (95% CI, 2.4%-6.3%) annually. The increases of cervical and anal cancer were most rapid among those aged 50 and older. HPV-attributable cancer deaths and mortality rate have risen by 4.7% (95% CI, 2.9%-6.7%) and 3.3% (95% CI, 0.9%-5.8%) respectively. HPV-attributable cancer cases and ASIR are projected to reach 214,077 and 9.35 of 100,000 persons by 2030 respectively, with 87.7% being cervical cancer, and anal cancer cases are expected to triple.

Conclusions: HPV-attributable cancer burden has largely increased in the past and will keep rising for the next decade. Cervical cancer control should be the priority and anal cancer prevention should be addressed.

Impact: This study supplies fundamental evidence for policy-making on HPV-attributable cancer control.