Post-transplant outcomes in recipients of living donor kidneys and intended recipients of living donor kidneys.

Background: Long-term kidney transplant survival at the population level is consistently favorable, but this survival varies widely at an individual level due to both recipient and donor factors. The distinct contribution of recipient and donor factors to individual post kidney transplant outcome remains unclear. Comparing outcomes in deceased donor (DD) recipients with potential but non-actualized living donors (DD1) to those recipients with actualized living donors (LD), and to DD recipients without potential living donors (DD0) may provide transplant candidates with more information about their own post-transplant prognosis.

Methods: We conducted an observational retrospective cohort study of kidney transplant candidates presenting to our centre for evaluation between 01/01/06 and 31/12/18, and who also received a transplant during that time. Patients were followed to 31/08/2019. Candidates were classified as DD0, DD1, or LD based on whether they had an identified living donor at the time of initial pre-transplant assessment, and if the donor actualized or not. Primary outcome was 5-year death-censored graft survival, adjusted for common pre- and post-transplant donor and recipient risk factors. Secondary outcomes analyzed included patient survival and graft function.

Results: There were 453 kidney transplant recipients (LD = 136, DD1 = 83, DD0 = 234) who received a transplant during the study period. DD0 and DD1 did not differ in key donor organ characteristics. The 5-year death censored graft survival of DD1 was similar to LD (p = 0.19). DD0 graft survival was inferior to LD (p = 0.005), but also trended inferior to DD1 (p = 0.052). By multivariate Cox regression analysis, LD demonstrated similar 5-year graft survival to DD1 (HR for graft loss 0.8 [95% CI 0.25-2.6], p = 0.72) but LD graft survival was superior to DD0 (HR 0.34 [0.16-0.72], p = 0.005). The 5-year patient survival in DD1 was similar to LD (p = 0.26) but was superior to DD0 (p = 0.01).

Conclusions: DD recipients with potential but non-actualized living donors exhibit similar mid-term graft and patient survival compared to LD recipients. Having an identified living donor at the time of pre-transplant assessment portends a favorable prognosis for the recipient.