Survival prediction in acute myeloid leukemia using gene expression profiling.

Background: Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a genetically heterogeneous blood disorder. AML patients are associated with a relatively poor overall survival. The objective of this study was to establish a machine learning model to accurately perform the prognosis prediction in AML patients.

Methods: We first screened for prognosis-related genes using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis in The Cancer Genome Atlas dataset and validated the results in the Oregon Health & Science University dataset. With a random forest model, we built a prognostic risk score using patient's age, TP53 mutation, ELN classification and normalized 197 gene expression as predictor variable. Gene set enrichment analysis was implemented to determine the dysregulated gene sets between the high-risk and low-risk groups. Similarity Network Fusion (SNF)-based integrative clustering was performed to identify subgroups of AML patients with different clinical features.

Results: The random forest model was deemed the best model (area under curve value, 0.75). The random forest-derived risk score exhibited significant association with shorter overall survival in AML patients. The gene sets of pantothenate and coa biosynthesis, glycerolipid metabolism, biosynthesis of unsaturated fatty acids were significantly enriched in phenotype high risk score. SNF-based integrative clustering indicated three distinct subsets of AML patients in the TCGA cohort. The cluster3 AML patients were characterized by older age, higher risk score, more frequent TP53 mutations, higher cytogenetics risk, shorter overall survival.

Conclusions: The random forest-based risk score offers an effective method to perform prognosis prediction for AML patients.