A Bayesian Network Analysis of the Probabilistic Relationships Between Various Obesity Phenotypes and Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Chinese Adults: Chinese Population-Based Observational Study.

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among individuals with different BMI levels might depend on their metabolic health. The extent to which metabolic health status and BMI affect CVD risk, either directly or through a mediator, in the Chinese population remains unclear.

Objective: In this study, the Bayesian network (BN) perspective is adopted to characterize the multivariable probabilistic connections between CVD risk and metabolic health and obesity status and identify potential factors that influence these relationships among Chinese adults.

Methods: The study population comprised 6276 Chinese adults aged 30 to 74 years who participated in the China Health and Nutrition Survey 2009. BMI was used to categorize participants as normal weight, overweight, or obese, and metabolic health was defined by the Adult Treatment Panel-3 criteria. Participants were categorized into 6 phenotypes according to their metabolic health and BMI categorization. The 10-year risk of CVD was determined using the Framingham Risk Score. BN modeling was used to identify the network structure of the variables and compute the conditional probability of CVD risk for the different metabolic obesity phenotypes with the given structure.

Results: Of 6276 participants, 64.67% (n=4059), 20.37% (n=1279), and 14.95% (n=938) had a low, moderate, and high 10-year CVD risk. An averaged BN with a stable network structure was constructed by learning 300 bootstrapped networks from the data. Using BN reasoning, the conditional probability of high CVD risk increased as age progressed. The conditional probability of high CVD risk was 0.43% (95% CI 0.2%-0.87%) for the 30 to 40 years age group, 2.25% (95% CI 1.75%-2.88%) for the 40 to 50 years age group, 16.13% (95% CI 14.86%-17.5%) for the 50 to 60 years age group, and 52.02% (95% CI 47.62%-56.38%) for those aged ≥70 years. When metabolic health and BMI categories were instantiated to their different statuses, the conditional probability of high CVD risk increased from 7.01% (95% CI 6.27%-7.83%) for participants who were metabolically healthy normal weight to 10.47% (95% CI 7.63%-14.18%) for their metabolically healthy obese (MHO) counterparts and up to 21.74% and 34.48% among participants who were metabolically unhealthy normal weight and metabolically unhealthy obese (MUO), respectively. Sex was a significant modifier of the conditional probability distribution of metabolic obesity phenotypes and high CVD risk, with a conditional probability of high CVD risk of only 2.02% and 22.7% among MHO and MUO women, respectively, compared with 21.92% and 48.21% for their male MHO and MUO counterparts, respectively.

Conclusions: BN modeling was applied to investigate the relationship between CVD risk and metabolic health and obesity phenotypes in Chinese adults. The results suggest that both metabolic health and obesity status are important for CVD prevention; closer attention should be paid to BMI and metabolic status changes over time.