Naples prognostic score, a novel prognostic score for patients with high- and intermediate-risk gastrointestinal stromal tumours after surgical resection.

Background: A novel multidimensional inflammatory and nutritional assessment system named the Naples prognostic score could serve as an independent prognostic indicator. However, its significance in patients with high- and intermediate-risk gastrointestinal stromal tumours remains unclear.

Methods: We performed this retrospective cohort study based on a prospectively collected database of gastrointestinal stromal tumours (GISTs) between March 2010 and December 2019. The Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test were used for survival analyses. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used for univariate and multivariate analyses. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves were generated to evaluate the discriminatory ability of the prognostic scoring systems. Differences in the areas under the curve were further compared.

Results: A total of 405 patients with regular follow-up were included and analysed in this study. Significant differences in progression-free survival and overall survival were observed between the groups (P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the NPS was a significant predictor of poor progression-free survival (1 vs 0, HR = 4.622, P = 0.001; 2 vs 0, HR = 12.770, P < 0.001) and overall survival (2 vs 0, HR = 5.535, P = 0.002). Furthermore, time-dependent AUC analyses showed that the NPS was more accurate than other haematologic prognostic systems.

Conclusions: The present study demonstrates that the NPS could independently predict disease progression and survival among patients with high- and intermediate-risk GISTs. The NPS might be regarded and applied as one of the most convenient and effective preoperative risk stratification tools in the future, which should be validated by large-scale multicentre prospective cohort studies.