A Nomogram to Predict the Risk of Stent Dysfunction After TIPS in Patients with Hepatitis B Cirrhosis.

Rationale And Objectives: To develop and validate a nomogram for the prediction of stent dysfunction after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) placement in patients with hepatitis B cirrhosis.

Materials And Methods: From 2012 to 2020, 355 patients with hepatitis B cirrhosis who underwent TIPS placements were enrolled in this study. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to determine independent risk factors for the nomogram construction. Discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness of the prediction model were assessed by using receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration scatter plots, and a decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results: Independent factors for TIPS stent dysfunction included diabetes, previous splenectomy, the shunting branch of the portal vein, and stent position, which were used to construct the nomogram. The AUC values in the training and validation cohorts were 0.817 (95% CI: 0.731-0.903) and 0.804 (95% CI: 0.673-0.935), respectively, which suggested a good predictive ability. The calibration curves in both cohorts revealed good agreement between the predictions and actual observations. The DCA curve indicated that when the threshold probability ranged from 2% to 88%, the nomogram could provide clinical usefulness and a net benefit.

Conclusion: The nomogram that we developed could be conveniently used to predict TIPS stent dysfunction in patients with hepatitis B cirrhosis.