Analysis of Prognostic Risk Factors and Establishment of Prognostic Scoring System for Secondary Adult Hemophagocytic Syndrome.

Introduction: The objective of this paper is to identify the prognostic risk factors of secondary adult hemophagocytic syndrome (HLH) in hospitalized patients and establish a simple and convenient prognostic scoring system.

Method: We reviewed 162 adult patients secondary with HLH treated in Zhejiang Cancer Hospital and the First Affiliated Hospital of Medical College of Zhejiang University from January 2014 to December 2018 were enrolled to form the test group; from January 2019 to February 2021, 162 adult patients in the hospitals constituted the validation group. The HLH prognosis scoring system was constructed according to the risk factors, and the patients were divided into three risk groups: low risk, medium risk, and high risk. The scoring system was verified by Kaplan-Meier method and log rank test survival analysis. The discrimination ability was evaluated according to the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

Results: Univariate and multivariate analysis showed that the independent risk factors for the prognosis of HLH were male sex, activated partial prothrombin time (APTT) greater than 36 s, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) greater than 1000 U/L, and C-reactive protein (CRP) greater than 100 mg/L. The area under the ROC curve was 0.754 (95% Cl: 0.678-0.829). The patients were divided into a low-risk group (0-1), a medium-risk group (2-4), and a high-risk group (5-6). The 5-year overall survival (OS) rate were 87.5%, 41.8% and 12.8%, respectively ( < 0.001). The area under ROC curve was 0.736 (95% Cl: 0.660-0.813) in the validation group, and the 2-year OS of patients in low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk groups were 88.0%, 45.1% and 16.7%, respectively ( < 0.001).

Conclusion: The new prognostic scoring system can accurately predict the prognosis of secondary adult HLH and can further provide basis for the accurate treatment of secondary adult HLH.