The Utility of Machine Learning Algorithms for the Prediction of Early Revision Surgery After Primary Total Hip Arthroplasty.

Background: Revision total hip arthroplasty (THA) is associated with increased morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs due to a technically more demanding surgical procedure when compared with primary THA. Therefore, a better understanding of risk factors for early revision THA is essential to develop strategies for mitigating the risk of patients undergoing early revision. This study aimed to develop and validate novel machine learning (ML) models for the prediction of early revision after primary THA.

Methods: A total of 7,397 consecutive patients who underwent primary THA were evaluated, including 566 patients (6.6%) with confirmed early revision THA (<2 years from index THA). Electronic patient records were manually reviewed to identify patient demographics, implant characteristics, and surgical variables that may be associated with early revision THA. Six ML algorithms were developed to predict early revision THA, and these models were assessed by discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis.

Results: The strongest predictors for early revision after primary THA were Charlson Comorbidity Index, body mass index >35 kg/m2, and depression. The six ML models all achieved excellent performance across discrimination (area under the curve >0.80), calibration, and decision curve analysis.

Conclusion: This study developed ML models for the prediction of early revision surgery for patients after primary THA. The study findings show excellent performance on discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis for all six candidate models, highlighting the potential of these models to assist in clinical practice patient-specific preoperative quantification of increased risk of early revision THA.