Levels of Alpha-Fetoprotein and Association with Mortality in Hepatocellular Carcinoma of HIV-1-Infected Patients.

Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study on patients living with HIV-1 infection (PLWH) followed at the Division of Infectious Diseases of the San Raffaele Hospital, with cirrhosis and HCC diagnosed between 1999 and 2018 and with an available AFP value at HCC diagnosis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to estimate the accuracy of baseline AFP in predicting death. Factors associated with the risk of death were identified using multivariable Cox proportional-hazards regression models.

Results: Overall, 53 PLWH were evaluated: 18 patients received a curative treatment (9 liver transplantation, 5 liver resections and 4 radiofrequency ablation) and 35 a noncurative treatment (17 chemo or radio embolization, 10 sorafenib and 8 best supportive care). Baseline AFP was predictive of death [AUC 0.71, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.54-0.83], and the optimal cut-off was 28.8 ng/mL. At multivariable analysis, BL AFP ≥28.8 ng/mL was associated with death [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 7.05, 95% CI 1.94-25.71  = 0.003]. Other factors were HBV infection (aHR 8.57, 95% CI 1.47-50.08,  = 0.017) and treatment allocation (curative vs. noncurative, aHR 0.08, 95% CI 0.02-0.40,  = 0.0004).

Conclusions: Our findings suggest that in PLWH AFP serum levels ≥28.8 ng/mL, HBV coinfection and treatment allocation represent predictive markers for death at the time of HCC diagnosis.