Determining Predictors of Weight Loss in a Behavioral Intervention: A Case Study in the Use of Lasso Regression.

Objective: This study investigates predictors of weight loss among individuals with serious mental illness participating in an 18-month behavioral weight loss intervention, using Lasso regression to select the most powerful predictors.

Methods: Data were analyzed from the intervention group of the ACHIEVE trial, an 18-month behavioral weight loss intervention in adults with serious mental illness. Lasso regression was employed to identify predictors of at least five-pound weight loss across the intervention time span. Once predictors were identified, classification trees were created to show examples of how to classify participants into having likely outcomes based on characteristics at baseline and during the intervention.

Results: The analyzed sample contained 137 participants. Seventy-one (51.8%) individuals had a net weight loss of at least five pounds from baseline to 18 months. The Lasso regression selected weight loss from baseline to 6 months as a primary predictor of at least five pound 18-month weight loss, with a standardized coefficient of 0.51 (95% CI: -0.37, 1.40). Three other variables were also selected in the regression but added minimal predictive ability.

Conclusions: The analyses in this paper demonstrate the importance of tracking weight loss incrementally during an intervention as an indicator for overall weight loss, as well as the challenges in predicting long-term weight loss with other variables commonly available in clinical trials. The methods used in this paper also exemplify how to effectively analyze a clinical trial dataset containing many variables and identify factors related to desired outcomes.