Circulating Proteome and Progression of Type 2 Diabetes.

Context: Circulating proteomes may provide intervention targets for type 2 diabetes (T2D).

Objective: We aimed to identify proteomic biomarkers associated with incident T2D and assess its joint effect with dietary or lifestyle factors on the T2D risk.

Methods: We established 2 nested case-control studies for incident T2D: discovery cohort (median 6.5 years of follow-up, 285 case-control pairs) and validation cohort (median 2.8 years of follow-up, 38 case-control pairs). We integrated untargeted mass spectrometry-based proteomics and interpretable machine learning to identify T2D-related proteomic biomarkers. We constructed a protein risk score (PRS) with the identified proteomic biomarkers and used a generalized estimating equation to evaluate PRS-T2D relationship with repeated profiled proteome. We evaluated association of PRS with trajectory of glycemic traits in another non-T2D cohort (n = 376). Multiplicative interactions of dietary or lifestyle factors with PRS were evaluated using logistic regression.

Results: Seven proteins (SHBG, CAND1, APOF, SELL, MIA3, CFH, IGHV1-2) were retained as the proteomic biomarkers for incident T2D. PRS (per SD change) was positively associated with incident T2D across 2 cohorts, with an odds ratio 1.29 (95% CI, 1.08-1.54) and 1.84 (1.19-2.84), respectively. Participants with a higher PRS had a higher probability showing unfavored glycemic trait trajectory in the non-T2D cohort. Red meat intake and PRS showed a multiplicative interaction on T2D risk in the discovery (P = 0.003) and validation cohort (P = 0.017).

Conclusion: This study identified proteomic biomarkers for incident T2D among the Chinese populations. The higher intake of red meat may synergistically interact with the proteomic biomarkers to exaggerate the T2D risk.