Incidence and seroprevalence of seasonal influenza a viruses in Egypt: Results of a community-based cohort study.

Background: H1N1 and H3N2 influenza A viruses circulate in people as seasonal influenza viruses. Data on influenza infection rates and circulation in demographic subpopulations in Egypt are limited. In this study, we aimed to determine the incidence and seroprevalence of seasonal influenza A virus infections in a cohort of rural Egyptians between 2017 and 2020.

Methods: A total of 2383 subjects were enrolled from 390 households in five study sites in Northern Egypt. Informed consents were obtained. Sera were collected from participants on an annual basis (Baseline: 2016-2017, Follow up 1: 2017-2018, Follow up 2: 2018-2019, and Follow up 3: 2019-2020) to determine seroprevalence of antibodies against H1N1 and H3N2 viruses by hemagglutination inhibition assay and to estimate incidence based on seroconversion.

Results: Seropositivity against H1N1 was over 40% and over 60% against H3N2. The high seroprevalence was due to natural infection because participants were mostly unvaccinated. Seropositive participants were younger than seronegative participants indicating that the infection rate is higher in children. Incidence of both viruses ranged from 4% to 28% depending on study year. The incidence and seroprevalence of H3N2 and H1N1 infections at Follow up 1, 2, and 3 showed an increase at Follow up 2 observed for all age categories corresponding to season 2018-2019, at which the vaccine efficacy was the lowest worldwide compared with preceding and following seasons.

Conclusions: This cohort study provided estimates of influenza A infection rates among rural Egyptians. We recommend updating influenza vaccination programs to focus on such populations.