Nomogram for Predicting 5-Year Diabetes Remission After Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass Surgery in Chinese Patients with Obesity.

Purpose: Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) is widely used as an effective treatment for type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients with obesity; long-term (> 5 years) diabetes remission (DR) rates have been less frequently reported. To date, there is no validated model to guide procedure selection based on long-term glucose control in patients with T2D. The purpose of this study is to establish a new tool for predicting long-term DR with a nomogram.

Materials And Methods: One hundred five individuals with complete preoperative information and undergoing RYGB in a university hospital were enrolled in this retrospective study. DR criteria after bariatric surgery were defined according to the 2009 ADA guideline. Fifteen individuals were lost to 5-year follow-up. Thus, 90 individuals were available and seen at the end of follow-up. The baseline and 5-year data of these 90 individuals were analyzed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent predictors for long-term DR, and these predictors were used to create a nomogram.

Results: Preoperative glycated hemoglobin (A1C) and diabetes duration were identified as independent influential factors that could be combined for precise prediction of long-term complete DR. We created a nomogram by using these 2 factors. The area under the curve was 0.78 (95% confidence interval 0.67-0.89). The Hosmer-Lemeshow X value of nomogram was 3.86 (P = 0.87) and indicated consistency between predicted and observed remission.

Conclusion: Our nomogram was a novel and useful tool for accurate prediction of long-term DR after RYGB.