Back to the Roots: A Discrete Kermack-McKendrick Model Adapted to Covid-19.

Bull Math Biol

Faculty of Math./Natural Sciences, and Interdisciplinary Centre for History and Philosophy of Science, University of Wuppertal, Wuppertal, Germany.

Published: February 2022

A widely used tool for analysing the Covid-19 pandemic is the standard SIR model. It seems often to be used as a black box, not taking into account that this model was derived as a special case of the seminal Kermack-McKendrick theory from 1927. This is our starting point. We explain the setup of the Kermack-McKendrick theory (passing to a discrete approach) and use medical information for specializing to a model called by us an adapted K-McK-model. It includes effects of vaccination, mass testing and mutants. We demonstrate the use of the model by applying it to the development in Germany and show, among others things, that a comparatively mild intervention reducing the time until quarantine by one day would lead to a drastic improvement.

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Source
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8853305PMC
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-022-00994-9DOI Listing

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