Lung cancer mortality trends in Mexico, 1998-2018: the impact of the General Law on Tobacco Control.

Objective: The aim of this study was to describe trends in lung cancer (LC) mortality and trends in tobacco use.

Methods: This is an ecological time-series study to determine mortality trends due to lung cancer resulting from tobacco consumption, based on secondary open-access sources, such as the National Surveys. Smoking prevalence, tobacco use trends, mortality rates, and percentage were determined by LC. The mortality trend from LC was calculated, and a linear regression analysis was performed to evaluate the impact of the General Law for Tobacco Control.

Results: The prevalence of tobacco use decreased steadily between 1988 and 2015, particularly in men. Mortality rates and percentage decreased between 1998 and 2018. During this period, the mortality rate decreased from 6.3 to 5.4 per 100,000 population (-0.032/100,000 each year, p<0.001), with a net decrease of 0.9 per 100,000. We observe increases in mortality in women in the central and southeastern regions. Of 32 states, 18 showed a tendency to loss (p<0.005). The rate of change for men was -0.24, with a total reduction of 2.17 before the introduction of the laws and -0.32 after their introduction, a total reduction of 3.24 (p<0.005). Women showed no reduction.

Conclusions: Mortality rates showed a limited decrease. Strategies need to be strengthened, mainly in the central and southeastern regions, and to focus on the control of tobacco use by women.