Predictor of atrial fibrillation recurrence in patients who underwent a tricuspid valve operation with modified Cox maze procedure.

Background: Recurrence of any atrial arrhythmia after surgical ablation is known as a negative predictor of cardiovascular events and total mortality. However, there have been no focused studies for atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence prediction in patients with significant tricuspid regurgitation (TR), and the risk-benefit estimation of surgical ablation in tricuspid valve (TV) surgery is not fully established.

Method: We screened 385 patients who underwent a TV operation between 2001 and 2017. After excluding patients who did not undergo a maze operation, 158 patients were enrolled. Enrolled patients were divided by recurrence of AF. We analyzed the difference between the AF recurrence group and no AF recurrence group, and AF recurrence factors in terms of clinical risk factors and echocardiographic risk factors. The hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were presented using a Cox proportional hazard model.

Results: Among 158 patients, AF recurred in 65 patients within 10 years. For AF prediction, age was most the important clinical factor and right atrium (RA) diameter was the most important echocardiographic parameters. In patients with a larger RA diameter over 49.2 mm, the prevalence of AF recurrence was higher (HR 4.322, 95% CI [2.185-8.549], log rank p value < .001). In clinical outcome, there was no significant difference between the AF recurrence group and the no recurrence group in terms of death, TR recurrence, heart failure, and stroke. However, the risk of permanent pacemaker (PPM) insertion was higher in the AF recurrence group (HR 10.240, 95% CI [1.257-83.480], log rank p value .007) compared to the no recurrence group.

Conclusion: Age and RA enlargement are key predictors of AF recurrence after TV operation with the CM procedure in patients with significant TR.