Nomograms to predict overall and cancer-specific survival in patients with penile cancer.

Background: To develop and validate prognostic nomograms for predicting overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with penile cancer (PC).

Methods: Based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result (SEER) database, patients diagnosed with PC from 2010 to 2015 were enrolled in this study. For each patient, clinical characteristics and survival results were respectively collected. With the method of random-number generation, included patients were divided into the training cohort and the validation group. Subsequently, nomograms were constructed to predict 3- and 5-year OS and CSS based on the results of multivariate analyses. Kaplan-Meier (KM) method and the log-rank test were used to estimate survival curves of each variables. Finally, the calibration plots, concordance index (C-index), area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to evaluate nomograms performance.

Results: Totally, 1,418 patients were eventually enrolled in the study, including 994 patients in the training cohort and 424 patients in the validation cohort. No significant difference was detected in the baseline characteristics between two cohorts. According to results of the uni- and multivariate analysis in the training cohort, 7 factors (including age, race, T stage, N stage, M stage, histology codes, and the use of surgery) for OS and 7 factors (including race, T stage, N stage, M stage, histology codes, the use of surgery and lymph node removal) for CSS were selected for constructing the nomograms. The C-indices for OS and CSS were 0.755 and 0.805 in the training cohort and 0.711, 0.737 in the validation cohort. In addition, the 3- and 5-year area under the ROC curve (AUC)s for OS were 0.792 and 0.771 in the training cohort, and 0.687 and 0.695 in the validation group. When it came to CSS, it was 0.83 and 0.826 in the training cohort and 0.758 and 0.746 in the validation cohort. Lastly, the calibration curves indicated a good consistency between the actual survival and the predictive survival.

Conclusions: We firstly established survival models to predict OS and CSS in PC patients with good predictive ability. Further studies are needed to validate our results before clinical application in the future.