AI Article Synopsis
- Breast screening services in England were paused during the COVID-19 pandemic, which has led to concerns about delayed detection of breast cancers and potential increases in cancer deaths.
- Approximately 1.5 million women experienced delays of 2-7 months in their screenings, potentially resulting in 2,500 to 4,100 cancers shifting from screen-detected to symptomatic status, and leading to an estimated 148 to 452 additional deaths from these cancers.
- Overall, the study projects that there could be 148 to 687 extra breast cancer deaths due to the disruptions caused by the pandemic, largely dependent on how quickly screening services can resume and address the backlog.
Article Abstract
Background: Population breast screening services in England were suspended in March 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we estimate the number of breast cancers whose detection may be delayed because of the suspension, and the potential impact on cancer deaths over 10 years.
Methods: We estimated the number and length of screening delays from observed NHS Breast Screening System data. We then estimated additional breast cancer deaths from three routes: asymptomatic tumours progressing to symptomatically diagnosed disease, invasive tumours which remain screen-detected but at a later date, and ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) progressing to invasive disease by detection. We took progression rates, prognostic characteristics, and survival rates from published sources.
Results: We estimated that 1,489,237 women had screening delayed by around 2-7 months between July 2020 and June 2021, leaving 745,277 outstanding screens. Depending on how quickly this backlog is cleared, around 2500-4100 cancers would shift from screen-detected to symptomatic cancers, resulting in 148-452 additional breast cancer deaths. There would be an additional 164-222 screen-detected tumour deaths, and 71-97 deaths from DCIS that progresses to invasive cancer.
Conclusions: An estimated 148-687 additional breast cancer deaths may occur as a result of the pandemic-related disruptions. The impact depends on how quickly screening services catch up with delays.
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|---|---|
| http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8808468 | PMC |
| http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41416-022-01714-9 | DOI Listing |
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