Coronary artery calcification progression and long-term cardiovascular outcomes in renal transplant recipients: an analysis by the joint model.

Background: Compared with the general population, the risk of death is substantially higher in renal transplant recipients than in age- and sex-matched individuals in the general population. In the general population, coronary artery calcification (CAC) predicts all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. In this study we aimed to analyse these relationships in renal transplant recipients.

Methods: We examined 178 renal transplant patients in this prospective observational cohort study. We measured CAC with multidetector spiral computed tomography using the Agatston score at multiple time points. Overall, 411 scans were performed in 178 patients over an average 12.8 years follow-up. The clinical endpoint was a composite including all-cause death and non-fatal cardiovascular events. Data analysis was performed by the joint model.

Results: During a follow-up of 12.8 ± 2.4 years, coronary calcification progressed over time (P < 0.001) and the clinical endpoint occurred in 54 patients. In the analysis by the joint model, both the baseline CAC score and the CAC score progression were strongly associated with the incidence rate of the composite event [hazard ratio 1.261 (95% confidence interval 1.119-1.420), P = 0.0001].

Conclusions: CAC at baseline and coronary calcification progression robustly predict the risk of death and cardiovascular events in renal transplant recipients. These findings support the hypothesis that the link between the calcifying arteriopathy of renal transplant patients and clinical end points in these patients is causal in nature.