Moderate physical activity may not decrease the risk of cardiovascular disease in persistently overweight and obesity adults.

Background: Body mass index (BMI) and physical activity (PA) has been documented to be associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the evidences regarding joint phenotypes of BMI and PA trajectories with risk for CVD and all-cause mortality are still limited.

Methods: Participants from the Kailuan Study, followed up during 2006-2019 were included, with primary outcomes of CVDs (myocardial infarction or stroke) and all-cause mortality. BMI and PA were repeatedly measured at least three times, and thus joint phenotypes trajectory groups were identified by group-based trajectory modeling. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the associations between trajectory groups and CVDs and all-cause mortality.

Results: Totally 88,141 (6 trajectories) and 89,736 participants (5 trajectories) were included in the final analyses relating trajectories to CVDs and all-cause mortality, respectively. Compared with persistent normal-weight with moderate PA group, participants were associated with increased risk of CVD in persistent overweight with moderate PA trajectory group (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 1.31, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.22-1.41) and persistent obesity with moderate PA trajectory group (aHR: 1.55, 95% CI: 1.41-1.69). While the rising to overweight with moderate PA in normal-weight status with active PA (aHR: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.65-0.79), persistent overweight with moderate PA (aHR: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.87-0.97) and decline to normal-weight in overweight status with moderate PA (aHR: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.67-0.80) trajectories group were significantly associated with decreased all-cause mortality risk. The associations remained robust among stratifying by age and sex individuals and sensitive analysis.

Conclusions: The long-term trajectories analysis showed that moderate PA may not decrease the risk of CVD in persistently overweight and obesity adults.