Behaviour modification intervention for patients with chronic kidney disease could provide a mid- to long-term reduction in public health care expenditure: budget impact analysis.

Background: A recent cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) study evaluated the widespread diffusion of behaviour modification intervention for patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Incorporating this behaviour modification intervention, comprising educational sessions on nutrition/lifestyle and support for regular patient visits, to the current CKD guideline-based practice was found to be cost-effective. This study aimed to examine the affordability of this efficient new practice under the hypothesis that the behaviour modification intervention would be initiated by general physicians (GPs).

Methods: A budget impact analysis was conducted by defining the target population as patients aged 40-74 years with stage-3-5 CKD based on the prevalence of definitive CKD in the Japanese general population. Costs expended by social insurers without discount were counted as budgets. We estimated the annual budget impact for 15 years by running our CEA model, assuming that it would be good for the span.

Results: We estimated the number of patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) to decrease by 4,496 in the fifteenth year of the new practice using our CEA model. Compared to that in the current practice, the budget impact as total additional expenditure of the new practice was estimated to be negative by the tenth year in the base case.

Conclusions: The widespread diffusion of behaviour modification intervention would contain public health care expenditure over the mid-to-long term, resulting from a reduction in progression to ESKD. We suggest that providing sufficient economic incentives to GPs and strengthening recommendations in CKD guidelines would realise effective GP-initiated interventions.