Associations between physical activity, left atrial size and incident atrial fibrillation: the Tromsø Study 1994-2016.

Aims: Left atrial (LA) enlargement is an independent risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF). Interestingly, some athletes have increased risk of AF, which may be linked to LA enlargement; however, little is known about the relationship between LA enlargement and AF risk at moderate-level physical activity (PA). We aimed to explore the associations between PA, LA size and risk of incident AF, and if PA can attenuate the risk of AF with LA enlargement.

Methods: This prospective study followed 2479 participants (52.4% female), free from known cardiac pathology, for median 20.2 years. Participants were followed up for hospital-diagnosed AF, confirmed by electrocardiography, from 1994-95 through 2016. At baseline, LA size was evaluated by anteroposterior LA diameter, and PA was self-reported by questionnaire.

Results: We observed a U-shaped relationship between PA and AF, and moderately active had 32% lower AF risk than inactive (HR 0.68, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.93). Participants with LA enlargement had 38% higher AF risk compared with participants with normal LA size (HR 1.38, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.69). However, the increased AF risk with LA enlargement was attenuated by PA; compared with inactive participants with LA enlargement, the AF risk was 45% lower among active with LA enlargement (HR 0.55, 95% CI 0.39 to 0.79). AF risk in active participants with LA enlargement did not differ from active with normal LA size. These patterns were observed in both men and women, and in participants over/under 65 years.

Conclusion: Moderate PA was associated with reduced AF risk, and PA attenuated the increased risk of AF with LA enlargement in both men and women and all age groups.