Machine learning approach to predict acute kidney injury after liver surgery.

Background: Acute kidney injury (AKI) after surgery appears to increase the risk of death in patients with liver cancer. In recent years, machine learning algorithms have been shown to offer higher discriminative efficiency than classical statistical analysis.

Aim: To develop prediction models for AKI after liver cancer resection using machine learning techniques.

Methods: We screened a total of 2450 patients who had undergone primary hepatocellular carcinoma resection at Changzheng Hospital, Shanghai City, China, from January 1, 2015 to August 31, 2020. The AKI definition used was consistent with the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes. We included in our analysis preoperative data such as demographic characteristics, laboratory findings, comorbidities, and medication, as well as perioperative data such as duration of surgery. Computerized algorithms used for model development included logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGboost), and decision tree (DT). Feature importance was also ranked according to its contribution to model development.

Results: AKI events occurred in 296 patients (12.1%) within 7 d after surgery. Among the original models based on machine learning techniques, the RF algorithm had optimal discrimination with an area under the curve value of 0.92, compared to 0.87 for XGBoost, 0.90 for DT, 0.90 for SVM, and 0.85 for LR. The RF algorithm also had the highest concordance-index (0.86) and the lowest Brier score (0.076). The variable that contributed the most in the RF algorithm was age, followed by cholesterol, and surgery time.

Conclusion: Machine learning algorithms are highly effective in discriminating patients at high risk of developing AKI. The successful application of machine learning models may help guide clinical decisions and help improve the long-term prognosis of patients.