Low Heat Availability Could Limit the Potential Spread of the Emerald Ash Borer to Northern Europe (Prognosis Based on Growing Degree Days per Year).

Emerald ash borer (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) is one of 20 priority quarantine pests of the European Union. It is native to Asia and is established in the USA, Canada, European Russia, and Ukraine. We made the first prognosis of the potential range of in Europe based on heat availability. Mean annual growing degree days base 10 °C (AGDD) was calculated for each grid square (0.25° × 0.25° latitude x longitude degrees) on the Earth's surface. Minimal AGDD recorded in the grid squares currently occupied by was 714° in Asia, 705° in North America, and 711° in European Russia. has never been recorded in localities with AGDD below 700°. If the phenotypic plasticity would not allow this species to overcome this threshold, cold regions of Europe would probably not be invaded by . Thus, could potentially escape from in some regions of Norway, Sweden, Finland, Ireland, and Great Britain.