A simple nomogram identifies patients with refractory ascites with worse outcome after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt.

Objectives: Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is increasingly used in the management of refractory ascites. Controversy exists regarding the predictive factors of unfavorable outcomes, useful for patient selection. The primary aim was to identify predictive factors of 1-year survival or recurrent severe hepatic encephalopathy in patients with cirrhosis undergoing covered TIPS for refractory ascites. The secondary aim was overall survival.

Methods: Observational, retrospective, multicentric study, that included all cirrhotic patients treated with covered-TIPS for refractory ascites since 2001. Demographic, clinical, laboratory and hemodynamic data were collected at baseline and consecutively until dead, liver transplant or end of follow-up. The Cox model was used to identify predictive factors of overall survival. A Fine-Gray competing risk regression model was used to identify predictive factors of 1-year mortality or recurrent hepatic encephalopathy. A predictive nomogram was created based on those factors.

Results: In total 159 patients were included. Predictive factors of survival or recurrent severe encephalopathy were renal dysfunction [hazard ratio, 2.12 (95% CI, 1.11-4.04); P = 0.022], albumin [hazard ratio, 0.58 (95% CI, 0.34-0.97); P = 0.036], serum sodium [hazard ratio, 0.94 (95% CI, 0.89-0.98); P = 0.008] and international normalized ratio [hazard ratio 4.27 (95% CI, 1.41-12.88); P = 0.010]. In the competing risk analysis, predictive factors of 1-year mortality/recurrent severe encephalopathy in multivariate analysis were age [sub-distribution hazard ratio (sHR) 1.05 (95% CI, 1.02-1.09); P = 0.001], creatinine [sHR 1.55 (95% CI, 1.23-1.96); P = 0.001] and serum sodium [sHR 0.94 (95% CI, 0.90-0.99); P = 0.011] at baseline.

Conclusions: Age, creatinine and sodium baseline levels strongly influence 1-year survival/recurrent severe hepatic encephalopathy in patients with cirrhosis undergoing covered TIPS for refractory ascites. A simple nomogram accurately and easily identifies those patients with worse prognosis.