Evaluation of a Medicaid performance improvement project to reduce high-dose opioid prescriptions.

Background: In 2015, Oregon's Medicaid program implemented a performance improvement project to reduce high-dose opioid prescribing across its 16 coordinated care organizations (CCOs). The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of that program on prescription opioid use and outcomes.

Methods: Using Medicaid claims data from 2014 to 2017, we conducted interrupted time-series analyses to examine changes in the prescription opioid use and overdose rates before (July 2014 to June 2015) and after (January 2016 to December 2017) implementation of Oregon's high-dose policy initiative (July 2015 to December 2015). Prescribing outcomes were: 1) total opioid prescriptions 2) high-dose [> 90 morphine milligram equivalents per day] opioid prescriptions, and 3) proportion of opioid prescriptions that were high-dose. Opioid overdose outcomes included emergency department visits or hospitalizations that involved an opioid-related poisoning (total, heroin-involved, non-heroin involved). Analyses were performed at the state and CCO level.

Results: There was an immediate reduction in high dose opioid prescriptions after the program was implemented (- 1.55 prescription per 1000 enrollee; 95% CI - 2.26 to - 0.84; p < 0.01). Program implementation was also associated with an immediate drop (- 1.29 percentage points; 95% CI - 1.94 to - 0.64 percentage points; p < 0.01) and trend reduction (- 0.23 percentage point per month; 95% CI - 0.33 to - 0.14 percentage points; p < 0.01) in the monthly proportion of high-dose opioid prescriptions. The trend in total, heroin-involved, and non-heroin overdose rates increased significantly following implementation of the program.

Conclusions: Although Oregon's high-dose opioid performance improvement project was associated with declines in high-dose opioid prescriptions, rates of opioid overdose did not decrease. Policy efforts to reduce opioid prescribing risks may not be sufficient to address the growing opioid crisis.