Impact of gestational age on risk of cerebral palsy: unravelling the role of neonatal morbidity.

Background: The contribution of adverse consequences of preterm birth to gestational-age-related risk of cerebral palsy (CP) has rarely been studied. We aimed to assess the potential mediating roles of neonatal morbidity on the association between gestational age and risk of CP.

Methods: In this Swedish population-based study, 1 402 240 singletons born at 22-40 gestational weeks during 1998-2016 were followed from day 28 after birth for a CP diagnosis until 2017. Potential mediators included asphyxia, respiratory-related, infection-/inflammatory-related and neurological-related diseases within 0-27 days of life. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Causal mediation analysis was performed to estimate the proportion of the association mediated through pathways involving the four sequential mediators.

Results: We found an inverse dose-response relationship between gestational age and risk of CP, where the strongest association was observed for 22-24 weeks (HR 47.26, 95% CI 34.09-65.53) vs 39-40 weeks. Compared with non-diseased peers, children with neonatal morbidity, particularly those with neurological-related diseases (HR 31.34, 95% CI 26.39-37.21), had a higher risk of CP. The increased risk of CP was, at 24 weeks, almost entirely explained by neonatal morbidity (91.7%); this proportion decreased to 46.1% and 16.4% at 32 and 36 weeks, respectively. Asphyxia was the main mediating pathway from 22 to 34 weeks, and neurological-related neonatal diseases led the mediating pathways from 34 weeks onwards.

Conclusion: Neonatal morbidity mediates a large proportion of the effect of preterm birth on CP, but the magnitude declines as gestational age increases.