Quantifying Karenia brevis bloom severity and respiratory irritation impact along the shoreline of Southwest Florida.

Nearly all annual blooms of the toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis (K. brevis) pose a serious threat to coastal Southwest Florida. These blooms discolor water, kill fish and marine mammals, contaminate shellfish, cause mild to severe respiratory irritation, and discourage tourism and recreational activities, leading to significant health and economic impacts in affected communities. Despite these issues, we still lack standard measures suitable for assessing bloom severity or for evaluating the efficacy of modeling efforts simulating bloom initiation and intensity. In this study, historical cell count observations along the southwest Florida shoreline from 1953 to 2019 were used to develop monthly and annual bloom severity indices (BSI). Similarly, respiratory irritation observations routinely reported in Sarasota and Manatee Counties from 2006 to 2019 were used to construct a respiratory irritation index (RI). Both BSI and RI consider spatial extent and temporal evolution of the bloom, and can be updated routinely and used as objective criteria to aid future socioeconomic and scientific studies of K. brevis. These indices can also be used to help managers and decision makers both evaluate the risks along the coast during events and design systems to better respond to and mitigate bloom impacts. Before 1995, sampling was done largely in response to reports of discolored water, fish kills, or respiratory irritation. During this timeframe, lack of sampling during the fall, when blooms typically occur, generally coincided with periods of more frequent-than-usual offshore winds. Consequently, some blooms may have been undetected or under-sampled. As a result, the BSIs before 1995 were likely underestimated and cannot be viewed as accurately as those after 1995. Anomalies in the frequency of onshore wind can also largely account for the discrepancies between BSI and RI during the period from 2006 to 2019. These findings highlighted the importance of onshore wind anomalies when predicting respiratory irritation impacts along beaches.