Trends in incidence and prevalence of type 1 diabetes between 1999 and 2019 based on the Childhood Diabetes Registry of Saxony, Germany.

Objective: The Childhood Diabetes Registry of Saxony has been existing since 1999. The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence rates, cohort and point prevalence, and the trends of type 1 diabetes among children and adolescents based on the registry data over the past 21 years.

Methods: A completeness check of the Childhood Diabetes Registry of Saxony for the observation period 2012-2019 was performed using the capture-recapture method. The age-standardized incidence rates per 100,000 person years (PY) were estimated for the observation period 1999-2019. Prevalence was estimated per 100,000 children and adolescents as the point prevalence of five consecutive years, and as a cohort prevalence for the birth cohorts, which result from the difference of age and year at diagnosis. Trend analyses were executed using join point regression.

Results: A completeness of 98% (95% CI 89-100) was determined for the period from 2012 to 2019. The standardized incidence rate of type 1 diabetes among children and adolescents increased from 17.1 per 100,000 PY in 1999 to 24.7 per 100,000 PY in 2019. If this trend continues, the incidence rate will increase to 34.8 (95% CI 24.4-49.6) per 100,000 PY in 2030. The point prevalence of 5 consecutive years did not show a continuous trend over time. According to this method, the prevalence reached a plateau in the last segment (2013-2019). The calculation of cohort prevalence indicated a continuous increase from 2013 to 2019 with no significant statistical difference in terms of sex.

Conclusion: The point prevalence and the last incidence rates indicate that type 1 diabetes of children and adolescents is slowing down or has reached a plateau in Saxony. Nevertheless, the cohort prevalence predicts a steady increase. Future studies should continue investigating these trends in a longer observation period and consider including possible correlating environmental factors.