Predictors of Mortality Among Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients at a Tertiary Care Hospital in Ethiopia.

Background: The very unprecedented virus causing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has continued causing catastrophes in economy and loss of human lives. Despite countries' urgent and resilient public health actions against the COVID-19 pandemic, the disease is causing a large number of deaths. However, predictors of mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients have not been well investigated in Ethiopia. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the predictors of mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients at a tertiary care hospital in Ethiopia.

Methods: A hospital-based retrospective cohort design study was implemented among hospitalized COVID-19 patients at a tertiary care hospital in Harar, Ethiopia from March 20 to August 20, 2021. Data of 531 admitted patients were entered using Epi-data 3.1 and exported to STATA 14.2 for analysis. Binary logistic regression was used to identify significant predictors of outcome variables with an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) with a 95% confidence interval.

Results: Of the total 531 study participants, 101 deaths occurred. The mortality rate was 16.2 per 1000 person-days of observation with median survival time of 44 days with IQR [28, 74]. Smoking history [AOR=2.55, 95% CI (1.15, 5.65)], alcohol history [AOR=2.3, 95% CI (1.06, 4.97)], comorbidities [AOR=2.95, 95% CI (1.26, 6.91)], and increasing oxygen saturation [AOR=0.92, 95% CI (0.89, 0.95)], and lymphocyte count [AOR=0.90, 95% CI (0.88, 0.97)] were independent significant predictors of death from Covid-19.

Conclusion: The incidence of mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients was found to be high. Devising individual, tailored management for patients with "risk" behaviors, comorbid conditions, and poor prognostic markers such as lymphopenia and low oxygen saturation, may reduce the incidence of death among hospitalized COVID-19 patients.