Cigarette Price Increases, Advertising Ban, and Pictorial Warnings as Determinants of Youth Smoking Initiation in Poland.

Introduction: Europe's Beating Cancer Plan aims to create a "Tobacco-Free Generation" by 2040. To generate meaningful public health policy to achieve this target, we must understand more clearly the determinants of youth smoking initiation.

Aims And Methods: We examine the determinants of cigarette-smoking initiation in Poland using survival analysis techniques and data from four youth smoking surveys: the 2003, 2009, and 2016 Global Youth Tobacco Surveys (GYTS) and the 2019 PolNicoYouth survey (number of person-period observations N = 164 807). Split-population duration models are employed. The hazard of smoking initiation is modeled as a function of cigarette prices, nonprice tobacco-control measures, and socioeconomic variables.

Results: Our study finds a negative and significant relationship between cigarette prices and the hazard of smoking initiation in all models (hazard ratio from 0.86 to 0.91). Lower hazards of smoking initiation were also associated with a comprehensive advertising ban (hazard ratio from 0.69 to 0.70) and with the introduction of pictorial warnings (hazard ratio from 0.65 to 0.68).

Conclusions: This study concludes that cigarette price increases, such as from higher cigarette excise taxes, could further significantly reduce cigarette youth smoking initiation in Poland. Removing promotional and advertising elements from cigarette packs and making the health warning more noticeable through plain packaging laws would further accelerate the reduction in smoking initiation.

Implications: The European Union is currently formally reconsidering the Tobacco Tax Directive. This makes this analysis of the impact of cigarette prices on youth smoking initiation both timely and germane. As ever more countries implement standardized cigarette packaging, findings here provide support for this measure that removes advertising elements from the packs and makes the health warning more noticeable.