International, national and local trends in the spread of COVID-19: a geographic view of COVID-19 spread and the role to be played by coproduction.

Background: COVID-19, a respiratory disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, emerged in 2019 and led to a worldwide pandemic in 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic has been a massive natural experiment in the formation of mitigation strategies to prevent cases and to provide effective healthcare for those afflicted. Regional differences in the impact of the pandemic on morbidity and mortality have been driven by political and regional differences in the coproduction of public health and social policy. We explored the United States (US) experience of COVID-19 for trends and correlations with other nations and also at the national, regional, state and local levels.

Objective: To identify geographic and temporal trends in the spread of COVID-19 in the United States.

Methods: Population data on COVID-19 cases and mortality were acquired on a daily basis from multiple publicly available databases, including the New York Times and Johns Hopkins University. At each geographic level (national, state and county), geographic entities' reported cases were evaluated for correlations using linear least-squares methods to identify patterns of correlation in the cases independent of scale. We evaluated for two specific characteristics: (i) the nature of the curvature of the line linking across percentile scores, ranging from concave to convex and (ii) the area under this curve, indicating how effectively a selected region (nation, state and county) is linked to its entire containing unit (world, country and state). We used this approach to identify three distinct COVID behavior phenotypes, each of which consisted of a number of states in the USA.

Results: We found that COVID activity in the USA follows a unique trend compared to other countries and that within the USA during the first year of the pandemic, three initial COVID phenotypes emerged: (i) the metropolitan outbreak (early outbreak phenotype); (ii) the regional outbreak (summer peak phenotype) and (iii) trans-regional outbreak (fall/winter peak phenotype), which, taken in sum, represent the overall USA national trend. Each phenotype has specific behavioral characteristics and is composed of a cluster of different states experiencing different conditions.

Conclusion: Our findings suggest a new opportunity for public health strategy in the pandemic, namely to apply targeted public health approaches to address the specific needs of each phenotype. In the future, we should create databases that capture key health and hardship data elements at the smallest geographic level possible and use these to track trends, predict the future and apply targeted coproduction approaches to more effectively and efficiently safeguard population health, economic vitality and social well-being.