Validation of a clinicopathological and gene expression profile model to identify patients with cutaneous melanoma where sentinel lymph node biopsy is unnecessary.

Background: In patients with cutaneous melanoma, sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) serves as an important technique to asses disease stage and to guide adjuvant systemic therapy. A model using clinicopathologic and gene expression variables (CP-GEP; Merlin Assay) has recently been introduced to identify patients that may safely forgo SLNB. Herein we present data from an independent validation cohort of the CP-GEP model in Swedish patients.

Methods: Archival histological material (primary melanoma tissue) from a prospectively collected cohort of 421 consecutive patients with pT1-T4 melanoma undergoing SLNB between 2006 and 2014 was analyzed using the CP-GEP model. CP-GEP combines Breslow thickness and patient age with the expression levels of eight genes from the primary melanoma. Stratification is based on their risk for nodal metastasis: CP-GEP Low Risk or CP-GEP High Risk.

Results: The SLNB positivity rate was 13%. Of 421 primary melanomas, the CP-GEP model identified 86 patients as having a low risk for nodal metastasis. In patients with pT1-2 melanomas, the SLNB reduction rate was 35.4% (95% CI: 29.4-41.8) with a negative predictive value (NPV) of 96.5% (95% CI: 90.0-99.3). Among patients with pT1-3 melanomas, CP-GEP suggested a SLNB reduction rate of 24.0% (95% CI: 19.7-28.8) and a NPV of 96.5% (95% CI: 90.1-99.3). Only one of 118 pT3 tumors was classified as CP-GEP Low Risk, and all pT4 tumors were classified as being high risk for nodal metastasis.

Conclusion: This study demonstrates that CP-GEP can identify patients with a low risk for nodal metastasis. Patients with pT1-2 melanomas have the highest clinical benefit from using the test, where 35% of the patients could forgo a SLNB procedure.