While mathematical models of disease transmission are widely used to inform public health decision-makers globally, the uncertainty inherent in results are often poorly communicated. We outline some potential sources of uncertainty in epidemic models, present traditional methods used to illustrate uncertainty and discuss alternative presentation formats used by modelling groups throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Then, by drawing on the experience of our own recent modelling, we seek to contribute to the ongoing discussion of how to improve upon traditional methods used to visualise uncertainty by providing a suggestion of how this can be presented in a clear and simple manner.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100520 | DOI Listing |
Br J Psychiatry
December 2024
Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, UK.
Background: Trace amine-associated receptor 1 (TAAR1) agonists offer a new approach, but there is uncertainty regarding their effects, exact mechanism of action and potential role in treating psychosis.
Aims: To evaluate the available evidence on TAAR1 agonists in psychosis, using triangulation of the output of living systematic reviews (LSRs) of animal and human studies, and provide recommendations for future research prioritisation.
Method: This study is part of GALENOS (Global Alliance for Living Evidence on aNxiety, depressiOn and pSychosis).
Psychooncology
December 2024
Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colordo, USA.
Background: Advancements in precision oncology have led to a growing community of adults with advanced cancer who live longer but face prognostic uncertainty, with corresponding fears of the future. Their worst future fears related to cancer remain understudied, hindering support efforts.
Aims: This study aimed to characterize the presence, content, and predictors of imagined future worst-case scenarios related to cancer (WCS) among distressed adults with advanced cancer.
Environ Res
December 2024
Social Epidemiology and Health Policy, Department of Family Medicine and Population Health, University of Antwerp, Doornstraat 331, BE-2610, Wilrijk, Belgium; Institute for Environment and Sustainable Development (IMDO), Groenenborgerlaan 171, BE-2020, Antwerpen, Belgium; Laboratory of Applied Microbiology and Biotechnology (LAMB), Department of Bioscience Engineering, University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, BE-2020, Antwerpen, Belgium.
Introduction: Previous studies on prenatal green space exposure and early respiratory health show inconsistent results. This may reflect stage-specific in utero effects and pollen influence. We examine associations of surrounding greenness and pollen exposure during pregnancy (overall and by trimester) with preschool wheezing, and assess potential mediation by pollen.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFLancet Psychiatry
December 2024
Background: High-quality estimates of the epidemiology of the autism spectrum and the health needs of autistic people are necessary for service planners and resource allocators. Here we present the global prevalence and health burden of autism spectrum disorder from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 following improvements to the epidemiological data and burden estimation methods.
Methods: For GBD 2021, a systematic literature review involving searches in PubMed, Embase, PsycINFO, the Global Health Data Exchange, and consultation with experts identified data on the epidemiology of autism spectrum disorder.
BMC Palliat Care
December 2024
Division of Radiation Oncology, Tom Baker Cancer Centre, 1331 29 Street NW, Calgary, T2N 4N2, Alberta, Canada.
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