AI Article Synopsis
- The Atlantic coastline of the U.S. is experiencing subsidence from post glacial settlement and groundwater depletion, which, along with rising sea levels, increases the risk of flooding.
- Utilizing the ADvanced CIRCulation model, projections show that storm surge areas in coastal North Carolina could expand significantly by 2100, with an increase of 27% from Hurricane Irene and up to 40% from Hurricane Matthew due to subsidence.
- This increased flooding risk could lead to a rise in at-risk populations ranging from 18% to 61% and an additional 70,000 people exposed to storm-related threats, highlighting the critical need to consider land movement in flood predictions.
Article Abstract
Much of the United States Atlantic coastline continues to undergo subsidence due to post glacial settlement and ground water depletion. Combined with eustatic sea level rise (SLR), this contributes to an increased rate of relative SLR. In this work, we utilize the ADvanced CIRCulation model to project storm surges across coastal North Carolina. Recent hurricanes Irene and Matthew are simulated considering SLR and subsidence estimates for 2100. Relative to present day conditions, storm surge susceptible regions increase by 27% (Irene) to 40% (Matthew) due to subsidence. Combined with SLR (+ 74 cm), results suggest more than a doubling of areal flood extent for Irene and more than a three-fold increase for Hurricane Matthew. Considering current regional population distributions, this translates to an increase in at-risk populations of 18% to 61% due to subsidence. Even further, exposed populations are projected to swell relative to Matthew and Irene baseline simulations (8200 and 28,500) by more than 70,000 in all SLR scenarios (79,400 to 133,600). While increases in surge inundation are driven primarily by SLR in the region, there remains a substantial contribution due to vertical land movement. This outlines the importance of exploring spatially variable land movement in surge prediction, independent of SLR.
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|---|---|
| http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8568897 | PMC |
| http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-01096-7 | DOI Listing |
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