A Simple and Quick Screening Method for Intrapulmonary Vascular Dilation in Cirrhotic Patients Based on Machine Learning.

Background And Aims: Screening for hepatopulmonary syndrome in cirrhotic patients is limited due to the need to perform contrast enhanced echocardiography (CEE) and arterial blood gas (ABG) analysis. We aimed to develop a simple and quick method to screen for the presence of intrapulmonary vascular dilation (IPVD) using noninvasive and easily available variables with machine learning (ML) algorithms.

Methods: Cirrhotic patients were enrolled from our hospital. All eligible patients underwent CEE, ABG analysis and physical examination. We developed a two-step model based on three ML algorithms, namely, adaptive boosting (termed AdaBoost), gradient boosting decision tree (termed GBDT) and eXtreme gradient boosting (termed Xgboost). Noninvasive variables were input in the first step (the NI model), and for the second step (the NIBG model), a combination of noninvasive variables and ABG results were used. Model performance was determined by the area under the curve of receiver operating characteristics (AUCROCs), precision, recall, F1-score and accuracy.

Results: A total of 193 cirrhotic patients were ultimately analyzed. The AUCROCs of the NI and NIBG models were 0.850 (0.738-0.962) and 0.867 (0.760-0.973), respectively, and both had an accuracy of 87.2%. For both negative and positive cases, the recall values of the NI and NIBG models were both 0.867 (0.760-0.973) and 0.875 (0.771-0.979), respectively, and the precisions were 0.813 (0.690-0.935) and 0.913 (0.825-1.000), respectively.

Conclusions: We developed a two-step model based on ML using noninvasive variables and ABG results to screen for the presence of IPVD in cirrhotic patients. This model may partly solve the problem of limited access to CEE and ABG by a large numbers of cirrhotic patients.